Pub0026.htm
Industries of the future - A long term investment model
Paz Itzhaki-Weinberger,
I have decided to post this,
based on my post done in the Hebrew language on
This particular post is short
and deals with 2 subjects:
The first one (also the title
of this post) deals with the industries of the future and a model I created for
long-term investments.
The second one (indirectly
related to the industries of the future and long-term investments) deals with
how our predecessors, our previous generations, abandoned us shamefully – and
with your permission I will start with this one, as it is really short and
after a few minutes of reading will be totally understood by you and will also
serve as a proper prolog for the following topic.
So what do I mean by saying
“our predecessors, our previous generations, abandoned us shamefully”?
Well, we all had previous
generations – parents, grandparents, great-grandparents and so forth. Could
these previous generations guarantee that we and all our relatives will be
lifted from all financial worries? What would this require them to do in order
to guarantee this?
To examine this topic, let’s
take a stable environment (state & politics) – for instance Switzerland
which exists in a relatively similar manner since 1292 until today, or even the
United States of America (USA) in the last 200 years or so.
And now, let us take a journey
back to the past, just 100 years ago, and imagine that one of our relatives
chose to deposit for us a small sum equivalent of 1,000 USD of today (lets say
a small monthly wage) in a Swiss bank, in a very conservative plan, a solid
one, guaranteed by the government, that ensures an annual interest of just 4%
plus follows indexation. Our relative instructions to the bank were clear – the
money is not touched in any way and the plan becomes liquid and withdraw able
only after 100 years exactly have passed.
The meaning – the relative
actually gave up the sum of money (which is a small one) in favor of the future
generations, and will never enjoy this throughout his lifetime.
You might not believe it, but
this small sum will grow (base only!) in 100 years to no less then 50,000 USD,
and if we take an average inflation rate of just 3% per annum, it will grow in
100 years to no less then 811,000 USD !!!
And what if our relative left
instructions to the bank to wait 200 years instead of just 100?
Well, the base sum would grow
to no less then 2,500,000 USD, and with the above mentioned indexation and
inflation rates would reach the fantastic amount of 703,000,000 USD (703
million USD)!
The actual meaning is that if a
relative of yours, even a useless person earning just minimum wages, was clever
enough to leave one of his meager salaries “frozen ion time” for you for a
period of 200 years, thus sacrifice a single monthly wage on this and not on
buying some nonsense, you and your family could have inherited today a
fortune of over 700 million USD!
Furthermore, if your relative
would place a more significant amount, for instance a sum equivalent to 20,000
USD and not just 1,000 USD, in 200 years time we are talking about a fortune
of 14 billion USD (yes – 14 BILLION USD!!!) It is important to understand –
money generates a lot of power when time passes (due to the factor of interest
on interest), especially when not used, and in fact all of us have the ability
to dramatically change the lives of our future relatives, only if we are
wise enough to do so – unlike our previous generations who didn’t think or care
about us.
This is really just a small
trailer to make you curious – I developed a much more complex model which
allows people who are wealthy today and have millions of dollars free for
investment to create a unique legal structure to preserve the family wealth
and make it perpetual, and even strengthen the wealth significantly, neutralizing
all risks that exists naturally and actually “immunizing” the wealth – a new
concept named “Wealth Inoculation”– making sure the wealth is immune to poor
business decisions, to political instability, wars, revolutions, divorce,
death, family disputes, legal complications, foreclosures, bankruptcy etc. – In
fact this is my next start-up company, which is the first legal start-up in the
world, aimed for ultra-wealthy individuals, with emphasis on long-term
financial thinking – this new start-up actually forms unique legal structures
enabling wealthy people to guarantee their family is left perpetually wealthy,
and if not forever then at least for a few centuries, and that is made sure
even if future generations are not successful and/or intelligent as the
founding generation is, and even if they make fatal financial mistakes along
the way.
And as we are now discussing
the long-term, I will reach the topic which is the title of this post – the
industries of the future.
Again, this section will be
written in a perspective of 200 years back.
Take a moment to consider
the large companies you are familiar with today:
Take automobile companies such
as Honda, Mercedes or Ford – did such an industry even exist in the year 1812?
Of course not!
Take aircraft companies such as
Boeing or Airbus – did such an industry even exist in the year 1812? Of course
not!
Take software companies such as
Microsoft, Oracle or
Take PC and Microchip companies
such as Dell, Apple, Intel or
Take Pharmaceutical companies
such as MSD, GSK or even Teva – did such an industry even exist in the year
1812? Of course not!
Take the big oil companies such
as BP, Shell or even all the oil drilling industry of the
But why go far as 200 years
back?
Take the cellular phone giants
– and go back just 30 years – where were they?
And if we go just 30 years back
in tome, do you remember market giants such as KODAK? What happened to it
today? Wiped out by digital cameras….
The point I’m aiming to is
that there are actual revolutions in the world, forming entirely new industries
– and with these revolutions new capital changes the hold of wealth in the
world entirely – the
rate of these revolutions is just increasing, so if in the past it would take a
specific industry 50 years to dissolve, today it can happen in just 10-20 years.
Think for a moment what would
happen if you could be beamed 50 years into the past using a time machine, and
give you just 100,000 USD to buy stocks of various companies – obviously you
could buy in virtually nothing stocks that are worth today a fortune, as you
would know which industries are going to evolve and which has the best
potential – and it is likely your would spread your money on a variety of
companies and today become a major shareholder of Microsoft, Apple, Google,
And the return on your money –
it is obvious that that in just 50 years you could have doubled your money
4,000 times or 5,000 times easily – so instead of just 100,000 USD you would
have 500 million USD!
A part of the “trick”, by the
way, is not just anticipating which industry is going to evolve and succeed,
but also identifying the specific companies and people which the ability to lead,
manage and create their business into global businesses – this, of course,
makes the investments slightly more difficult.
To my best of knowledge, a time
machine has not (yet) been invented, so unfortunately what I describes isn’t
possible – yet we all know our current knowledge has priceless retroactive
value, and that if an ability to warp back it time existed every idiot could
have made a fortune – just watch the “Back to future” series of movies with
Michael J. Fox – and especially the second movie of the series with Biff….. If
you don’t know what I’m talking about – you must go see these movies… J
So why am I babbling about
something completely theoretical?
Well, because it is not – there
is an entire science out there called futurology, trying to anticipate how
the future is going to be like, so we can closely assume which are the
future industries.
You must have read lately about
the spider goats (goats with spider genes which produce milk containing spider
web, to manufacture bullet-proof vests more powerful then Kevlar), or the fuel
yeasts (yeast that manufactures diesel from sugar!) or Ray Kurtzweil’s
singularity, or artificial intelligence (robots / airplanes without a pilot,
unmanned war tanks) and even on artificial production of limbs and organs for
human transplants.
What will happen to 100,000
USD you have today if you invest them in 100 such companies? Where will your
wealth be 50 years from now?
Well, assuming you really suck
in predicting the future and will only get 2% accuracy (you will identify just
2 such companies out of 100 investments you make) – in 50 years time your
grandchildren will get “just” 10 million dollars from you.
If you are really good in
predicting the future (and also in identifying companies with the potential to
become global businesses) and 20% of your investments will be accurate – In
50 years time your grandchildren will get 100 million dollars from you!
What I’m saying is that your
own future and also the future of your family “depends on the future” – If you
make the right decision today, when young, when you are old you could become
ultra-wealthy – and one of my major projects these days includes perfecting a
model to both analyze the future industries (in long-term ranges – 25-100 years
from today) and who are the entities that are likely to survive and prosper
during that long range, and perform investments accordingly, where I
consider also to offer others to join and invest with me by using this model,
under my management.
To sum is
all up – a very interesting an exciting time is ahead of me, I am certain that
the best investments are long-term and even very long-term investments, that
the chances of such investments (especially when done wisely) are the best, and
that the chances increase even further when the investors are willing to invest
money for many years or even forever – not enjoying the money in your lifetime
but dedicate it for future generations – I am actually certain that only
people who can afford giving up significant funds for long-term investments and
for future generations can guarantee the financial prosperity of their future
generations - so I have 2 huge projects ahead of me that
I’m currently working on – both are being established these days under one
umbrella called “Weinberger Wealth”:
The first,
as I described above, is a project to preserve the wealth of the already
wealthy for centuries and ensuring the ongoing financial prosperity of their
families - a project which fits those
who are currently ultra-wealthy and with available capital for investments,
heads of state etc.
The actual
meaning is that a person who is wealthy today will be able to guarantee his
children and all future generations will continue to enjoy from his financial
strength for hundreds of years to come, even if the world changes dramatically
and even if they will make poor decisions and huge mistakes – a person cannot
know who the son of his grandchild will marry or what kind of person he will
be, and the project also makes sure the spirit of the founder will survive, and
his wishes will act and be felt in everyone’s life even centuries after he
died.
The second,
is a project aimed for ordinary people and not to particularly wealthy
individuals, and ones could enter it even with a small investment of just
50,000-100,000 USD, but with a long-term commitment, aimed to futurology and
predicting the “future industries” – again this project is aimed to individuals
willing to give up enjoyment from these funds throughout their lifetime or
postpone it for many years to come – the purpose of the project is that in just
3-4 generations the descendants of the investors shall become ultra-wealthy
themselves, by precisely locating the companies that in 50 years will become
multi-billion dollar global corporations and acquire valuable stake in these
companies for virtually nothing, at the right timing.